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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Nov 13 1250 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Nov 2024	172	014
14 Nov 2024	172	019
15 Nov 2024	172	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with one M-class flare identified. A total of seven numbered sunspot groups were observed on the disk during this period. The M-class flare was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2593), peaking on November 13 at 00:22 UTC, and was produced by the recurrent SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (previously NOAA Active Region 3859, now 3889). This SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889), currently located at S09W02, has a Beta-Gamma- Delta magnetic configuration and remained stable over the past 24 hours. Another sunspot group that showed some flaring activity, including C8-class flares, is SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3879), which has now rotated over the western limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain mostly low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A significant number of large filaments are currently facing Earth. One of the largest filaments in the northwest quadrant of the Sun was observed to erupt in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:48 UTC on November 12. This filament eruption may have been associated with or triggered the C8.2 flare peaking at 14:01 UTC on November 12 (SIDC Flare 2599), produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3879), currently located at longitude 95 degrees and latitude 16 degrees. Due to the source location of the filament and the northwest direction of the associated ejection, no Earth-directed impact is expected. So far, the other filaments remain stable, and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronale gaten

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 68, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-07 (and initially on 2024-09-10), continues to transition across the central meridian. The small SIDC Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity that emerged on 2024-11-12, is currently located around 20 degrees East and 10 degrees North and will soon reach the central meridian.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, and until 10:00 UTC today, solar wind parameters were close to a nominal solar wind regime, with a solar wind speed below 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 7 nT, and its southward component, Bz, fluctuated between -5.0 nT and 5.0 nT. After 10:00 UTC today, on November 13, the solar wind parameters showed some enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field: the total field has now risen to 9.4 nT, and its southward component, Bz, is fluctuating between -2.2 nT and -6.2 nT. This could be due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the positive-polarity, mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68), which crossed the central meridian on 2024-11-07, combined with the high-speed stream from the small equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 76, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-05. Solar wind conditions are expected to be further enhanced over the next 24 hours due to the influence of this ongoing high-speed stream.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp 1-2), with a short period of unsettled conditions observed locally (K BEL 3). Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase over the next 24 hours due to the combined arrival of high-speed streams from the mid-latitude northern coronal hole and the equatorial coronal hole, especially if the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative for an extended period.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Due to the enhanced solar and flaring activity, a slight chance of an increase cannot be excluded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

he greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	116 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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