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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Dec 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Dec 2024	170	010
10 Dec 2024	168	007
11 Dec 2024	168	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.5 flare peaking at 16:11 UTC on December 08, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912, magnetic type beta). There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3910) and SIDC Sunspot Group 331 (NOAA Active Region 3918) have rotated behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 329 (NOAA Active Region 3915) has decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920, magnetic type beta) has rotated on disk from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 333 (NOAA Active Region 3919, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the southeast quadrant, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916), near the central meridian. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

Preliminary analysis of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 09:24 UTC on December 08 suggests no impact on Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronale gaten

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, SIDC Coronal Hole 82, is still crossing the central meridian.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours following the arrival of a high-speed stream from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on December 06. Speed values reached 515 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were around 10 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was in the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions may be observed over the next 24 hours, with a gradual decrease to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4) between 00:00 UTC and 03:00 UTC on December 09. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 05:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on December 09. Mostly quiet conditions, with a small chance of active intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	139 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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