Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 25 januari 2025

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2025 Jan 25 1301 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
25 Jan 2025210029
26 Jan 2025209033
27 Jan 2025209007

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M2.7 flare peaking at 21:04 UTC on Jan 24, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 383 (NOAA AR 3961 and 3971) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 03:09 on Jan 25. This CME was associated with flaring activities from the SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961) in the SW quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected width of about 110 deg and a projected speed of about 420 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool), with the bulk of the mass going strongly SW from the Sun- Earth line. Therefore only a glancing blow associated with this CME can be expected at the Earth on Jan 28-29. Other flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Groups 342 and 346 (NOAA AR 3959 and 3961) were accompanied with faint and narrow CMEs which are not expected to arrive at the Earth. Another complex eruption from behind the solar E limb resulted in a partial halo CME, which was observed in the LASCO-C2 images starting around 12:32 UTC on Jan 24, is not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 370 km/s to 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect enhanced solar wind conditions with the possible arrival of coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 2) both globally and locally. In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible if the Earth experiences impact from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 342 (NOAA Active region 3959).

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. However, greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 17:50 UTC on Jan 24 and dropped below the threshold level at 00:10 UTC on Jan 25. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 113, gebaseerd op 08 stations.

Zon indexen voor 24 Jan 2025

Wolfgetal Catania187
10cm zonneflux205
AK Chambon La Forêt010
AK Wingst005
Geschatte Ap005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal140 - Gebaseerd op 13 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

DagStartMaxEindeLocatieSterkteOP10cmCatania/NOAASoorten radio-uitbarstingen
24204821042117S04W67M2.71F02/3961III/2

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

Alle tijden in UTC

<< Keer terug naar de dagelijkse overview pagina

Op basis van de huidige parameters is er nu geen kans op poollicht in België en Nederland

Laatste nieuws

Steun Poollicht.be!

Om ook bereikbaar te blijven bij grote poollichtkansen hebben we een zware server nodig die alle bezoekers aankan. Doneer en steun dit project zodat we online blijven en je geen enkele poollichtkans mist!

Donneer SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Steun SpaceWeatherLive met onze merchandise
Check nu onze merchandise

Laatste alerts

vrijdag 9 mei 2025
20:00 UTC - Geomagnetische activiteit

Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 19:56 UTC

alert


16:48 UTC - Hemisferisch vermogen

Het OVATION-model voorspelt dat het hemisferisch vermogen 50GW zal bereiken om 17:42 UTC


donderdag 8 mei 2025
22:45 UTC - Geomagnetische activiteit

Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 22:34 UTC

alert


Ontvang directe meldingen!

Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting28/03/2025X1.1
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting30/04/2025M2.03
Laatste geomagnetische storm03/05/2025Kp5 (G1)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag08/06/2022
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal
april 2025140.6 +6.4
mei 202578.8 -61.8
Afgelopen 30 dagen104.1 -33.5

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12024X3.98
22022X1.51
32012M8.25
42024M5.97
52013M5.67
DstG
12024-351G4
21992-288G4
31981-99G3
41993-91G2
52003-84G3
*sinds 1994

Sociale netwerken