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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2025 Mar 26 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Mar 2025	156	036
27 Mar 2025	155	064
28 Mar 2025	153	061

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare and several C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3910) peaking at 08:09 UTC on March 26, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 455) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 450 is the complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a little chance of X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field were enhanced possibly due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. The solar wind speed ranged from 310 km/s to 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 8 nT to 29 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -27 and 18 nT. Further enhanced solar wind parameters are expected with the HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, and also possibly with HSSs from the equatorial SIDC Coronal Holes 82 (positive polarity) which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 24.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 5), and locally at quiet to active conditions (K_BEL 2 to 4) during the past 24 hours. It was due to the possible arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible with the further arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, and also possibly with HSSs from the equatorial SIDC Coronal Holes 82 (positive polarity) which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 24.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 450 (NOAA Active Region 4036).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Mar 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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