Het archief bekijken van zondag 22 juni 2003
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 173 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 Jun 2003
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare
this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This
region has shown little change this period and still contains some
weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still
maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as
it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest
region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating
around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class
flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
hole high speed flow.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 Jun tot 25 Jun
Klasse M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 22 Jun 110
Voorspeld 23 Jun-25 Jun 110/115/115
90 dagen gemiddelde 22 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 21 Jun 016/023
Geraamd Afr/Ap 22 Jun 015/015
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 23 Jun tot 25 Jun
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-Indices
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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