Het archief bekijken van zondag 11 februari 2024

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Feb 11 1314 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

10cm fluxAp
11 Feb 2024182024
12 Feb 2024182021
13 Feb 2024180049

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M9 flare, start time 22:56 UTC, end time 23:14 UTC, peak time 23:07 UTC on Feb 10th, produced by NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta), which remains the largest, most complex and active region on the visible solar disc. Three new regions were numbered, of which NOAA AR 3583 (beta) starts to show significant flaring activity. The remaining regions are simple and unremarkable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days with likely M-class flaring and chances for an isolated X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

The coronal dimming detected in the AIA images starting around 7:40 UTC on Feb 10th is now related to an C8 flaring from NOAA AR 3576 and a neighbouring filament eruption. An associated wide southward coronal mass ejection (CME) is first visible in the LASCO/C2 imagery starting at 07:00 UTC on Feb 10th. Due to the time overlap with the earlier partial halo CME from the east limb, the true velocity of this eruption is difficult to assess, but current modelling indicates an Earth- directed component with possible arrival late on Feb 12th to early Feb 13th. A fast partial halo CME was detected in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 23:36 UTC on Feb 10th. A huge coronal dimming near the disc center is visible in the SDO/AIA running difference images. The CME is related to an impulsive M9-flare from NOAA AR 3576, which triggered a chain of nearby filament eruptions. It has an estimated velocity above 900 km/s and is expected to have a substantial Earth-directed component with predicted arrival time early on Feb 13th. The CME might catch up and mix with the other CME predicted to arrive late on Feb 12 to early Feb 13th, which could result in a possible earlier arrival. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered another ICME arrival, possibly related to an early arrival of the expected Feb 8th CME. A solar wind shock was detected at 01:20 UTC on Feb 11th. The solar wind speed jumped from 355 km/s to 440 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field quickly increased from 4 nT to 16 nT and soon after reached a maximum of 19 nT. The solar wind velocity has since increased to about 580 km/s. The solar wind conditions are expected to be remain perturbed throughout Feb 11th. Further enhancements in the solar wind parameters are expected late on Feb 12th and Feb 13th due to the anticipated arrival of two other ICMEs.

Geomagnetisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active with an isolated minor storm level registered in Belgium between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC on Feb 11th. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for Feb 11th with possible isolated minor storms. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the first half of Feb 12th and periods of minor to major storm levels are expected over the night of Feb 12th and on Feb 13th with anticipated two ICME arrivals.

Proton flux niveaus

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started at moderate radiation storm levels with values above 100 pfu and has declined to minor radiation storm levels around 04:00 UTC on Feb 11th. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels on Feb 11th and, in case of no new triggers, decline towards nominal levels by the end of Feb 12th.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 147, gebaseerd op 04 stations.

Zon indexen voor 10 Feb 2024

Wolfgetal Catania///
10cm zonneflux194
AK Chambon La Forêt016
AK Wingst005
Geschatte Ap004
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal151 - Gebaseerd op 10 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

DagStartMaxEindeLocatieSterkteOP10cmCatania/NOAASoorten radio-uitbarstingen
10225623072314S10W12M9.01F65/3576III/2IV/3II/3

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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Op basis van de huidige parameters is er nu geen kans op poollicht in België en Nederland

G1 - Kleine geomagnetische storm

Geobserveerde Kp: 5
Waarde bereikt: 13:07 UTC

Op basis van de huidige parameters is er in de nabije toekomst een beperkte kans op poollicht op de volgende locaties van de gemiddelde breedtegraad

Yakutsk
De snelheid van de zonnewind is gematigd hoog (539.7 km/sec.)
De sterkte van het interplanetair magnetisch veld is matig (13.36nT), de richting is licht Zuidelijk (-4.24nT).
De Disturbance Storm Time index voorspeld matig sterke storm condities op dit moment (-52nT)

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Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12002M8.82
21999M6.76
32001M2.91
42003M2.74
52001M2.31
DstG
11979-202G3
21988-133G3
31984-120G4
42004-117G2
51994-111G3
*sinds 1994

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