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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Feb 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Feb 2024	184	017
13 Feb 2024	184	059
14 Feb 2024	182	043

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flares were an M6.5 impulsive flare, peaking at 03:48 on Feb 12, associated with the NOAA AR 3576 (beta- gamma-delta class), and M1.0 flare, peaking at 22:45 on Feb 11, associated with the AR behind the east limb (N10E88). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex and active AR on the visible solar disc. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3583 (beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and chances for an isolated X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 06:36 UTC on February 12th. The CME is directed primarily to the South-West from the Earth's perspective. The analysis indicated that the source of the CME was on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, no impact on the solar wind condition near Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting the waning influence of an ICME. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 630 km/s to 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Similar solar wind conditions are expected, with a possibility of a week enhancement from late on Feb 12 - Feb 13 due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from Feb 9th and Feb 10th.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels later today and over the next days due to the anticipated ICMEs arrivals.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 08:05 UTC on February 12 and has remained above the threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to be above the threshold during the next 24 hours, before gradually decreasing.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	044
Estimated international sunspot number	148 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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