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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jun 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Jun 2024	193	012
27 Jun 2024	193	017
28 Jun 2024	193	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M1.0 flare, peaking at 12:45 UTC on June 25, associated with NOAA AR 3723. There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3723, that has grown in size and became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma- delta) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3727 (alpha). NOAA AR 3720 (beta-gamma class) is the second most complex active region, but remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a low chances of X- class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 05:24 UTC on June 25th. The CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that took place in the southwestern quadrant around 02:00 UTC on June 25th. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, glancing blow arrival could be possible from late on June 28. Two small filament eruptions were observed on June 25. The first eruption was detected at 11:37 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 data from the southeast quadrant. The second eruption occurred at 22:18 UTC near the disc center. Associated CMEs can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 13:25 UTC on June 25 and 00:00 UTC on June 26. Analysis of the CMEs is ongoing, but due to their origin locations, these CMEs may have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected near slow solar wind conditions, with some transient features having a mild influence. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached 12 nT around 03:25 UTC on June 26. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 373 km/s, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 11 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from late on June 28 due to the possible arrival of the CME from June 25.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp = 1-3, K-Bel = 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days. On June 28-29 isolated active conditions may be possible, due to the predicted glancing blow from the June 25 CME.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at low to normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 175, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	143 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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