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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jun 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Jun 2024	183	017
28 Jun 2024	185	022
29 Jun 2024	183	021

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C6.2 flare, peaking at 15:30 UTC on June 26, associated with NOAA AR 3723. There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3723 (beta-gamma-delta), that remains the most complex active on the disk, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3737 (beta) and NOAA AR 3729 (beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 23:52 UTC on June 25th. The CME is directed primarily to the south from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a small filament eruption that took place near the disk center around 22:18 UTC on June 25th. It is estimated to be Earth-directed and is expected to arrive at Earth late on June 29 - early on June 30th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 km/s and 380 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 10 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remaining below 11 nT. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from late on June 28 due to the possible glancing blow from the CME associated with the large filament eruption on the morning of June 25, and another potential enhancement on June 29 due to the predicted arrival of the CME from the evening of June 25.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp = 1-3-, K-Bel = 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Isolated active levels might be reached on Jun 28-30 related to possible arrival from the June 25th CMEs.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at low to normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 170, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	250
10cm solar flux	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	178 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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