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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jun 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Jun 2024	183	024
29 Jun 2024	185	024
30 Jun 2024	183	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with multiple C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C6.6 flare, peaking at 23:47 UTC on June 27, associated with NOAA AR 3730 (beta class). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3723 (beta-gamma class) remains the most complex active on the disk but produced only low level C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3719 (beta class), 3727 (beta class) and 3728 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 17:36 UTC on June 27. The CME is directed primarily to the southwest from Earth's perspective and is likely associated with the C2.0 flare from NOAA AR 3719. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could be possible from late on July 1. A faint partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 00:48 UTC on June 28, directed towards the southeast from Earth's perspective. This CME is likely associated with the flaring near NOAA AR 3730. Analysis of the CME is ongoing.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly disturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 9 nT and 13 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly negative, reaching down to -11 nT. The solar wind speed remained slow, ranging between 300 km/s and 340 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed on June 28 at 09:10 UTC in the solar wind parameters recorded by ACE. The solar wind velocity increased from 327 km/s to 371 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 11 nT to 18 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a minimum of -18 nT. This may mark the expected arrival of the partial halo CME associated with the large filament eruption on the morning of June 25. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated due to the ICME passage, with a chance of a weak enhancement on June 29 due to the predicted arrival of the CME from the evening of June 25 and another possible glancing blow on July 1 from the CME on June 27.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm conditions globally (NOAA Kp 6) between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC on June 28. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of reaching minor or moderate storm levels in response to any prolonged period of negative Bz while the Earth is under the ICME influence.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 164, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	172 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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