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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jul 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Jul 2024	170	008
25 Jul 2024	169	019
26 Jul 2024	167	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and two M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M3.6 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3751 which peaked at 07:42 UTC on Jul 24. During the flare, the source region (AR 3751) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Currently, NOAA AR 3751 and NOAA AR 3762 are the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), but AR 3762 has only produced C-class flarings. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 14:24 UTC on Jul 23. This CME was associated with a M2.5 flare, which peaked at 14:28 UTC on Jul 23, produced by NOAA AR 3765 (S11 E88). Associted type II radio emissions were detected at 14:11 UTC during the flaring activity. It has a projected speed of about 760 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). This CME is directed mostly towards the E and will most likely miss the Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on 25-26 Jul. A M3.6 flare occurred with a peak time 07:42 UTC on Jul 24, produced by NOAA AR 3751 (S08 W56). Associted type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at 07:44 UTC during the flaring activity. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are availble. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Zonnewind

In the last 24 hours, Earth came under the influence of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 19:50 UTC on Jul 23. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 15 nT, the solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to 320 km/s, and the solar wind density increased from 0.5/cm3 to 7.1/cm3. This shock is related to an ICME arrival possibly associated with a halo CME that was observed on the evening of Jul 21. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -1 and 12 nT, after the arrival of ICME. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3), due to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) possibly associated with a halo CME that was observed on the evening of Jul 21. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold level at 23:50 UTC on Jul 23. There were slight enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux around 06:00 UTC and 07:00 UTC on Jul 24, but it remained below the threshold level. These enhancements were possibly associated with the flaring activities from NOAA AR 3762 and NOAA AR 3751. The proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level, and it is expected to be at low to normal level in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 176, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	175 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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