Sunspot region 3664, major flares and CMEs!

Wednesday, 8 May 2024 18:09 UTC

First we take a look at sunspot regions 3664 and 3668 which have become an incredibly complex cluster of sunspots which are almost hard to keep apart. I mean where to start? Large sunspots, multiple magnetic delta structures... It is not strange that this region has been producing some major flares today and there remains a very high chance of M-class activity from it and even strong X-class solar flares peaking at X5 or maybe even higher are not out of the realm of possibility. Keep an eye on these sunspots which together form one of the most complex sunspot region of the current Solar Cycle.

Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections

Out of all of the flares that sunspot region 3664 produced today we will take a closer look at two of them. The X1.0 solar flare which peaked at 05:09 UTC and an M8.6 solar flare that peaked at 12:03 UTC. Both of these solar flares produced asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejections that will impact Earth. The first coronal mass ejection from the X1.0 solar flare has been modeled and expected to arrive late on Friday, 10 May. The M8.6 coronal mass ejection was slightly fainter compared the X1.0 coronal mass ejection but we do expect it to catch up or arrive slightly after the X1.0 coronal mass ejection arrives. What does that mean for the anticipated impact at Earth? Hard to say. Sometimes it causes trouble in interplanetary space and the impact becomes weaker than expected as the two coronal mass ejections merge with each other but sometimes the impact becomes much stronger. It is basically impossible to say but one thing we can guarantee is that you want to be right here on SpaceWeatherLive when these coronal mass ejections arrive to see how the situation plays out. For now, the official forecast from the NOAA SWPC calls for moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions on Saturday, 11 May. A look at the two coronal mass ejections as imaged by SOHO/LASCO can be found below.

Two earth-directed asymmetrical coronal mass ejections were launched today due to the M and X-class activity from sunspot region 3664. Both are expected to arrive late on 10 May or early on 11 May. Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions are possible after they arrive. More… pic.twitter.com/7hdyKSHpMN

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