3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA scale G3).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2024 is 6 (.67NOAA scale G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 03       May 04       May 05
00-03UT       6.67 (G3)    4.00         3.67     
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         3.33     
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         2.67     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.67         2.00     
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.00     
18-21UT       2.33         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         3.67         3.00     

Rationale

An early, isolated period of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is expected on 03 May, with a few periods of G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) storming expected thereafter, as lingering CME effects slowly wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024

              May 03  May 04  May 05
S1 or greater   15%     15%     10%

Rationale

A slight chance for a R1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will persist through 05 May as AR 3654 rotates beyond the western limb, and AR 3663 continues to show signs of evolution.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 02 2024 2057 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024

              May 03        May 04        May 05
R1-R2           65%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           10%

Rationale

Isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are likely through 05 May primarily due to the potential exhibited by ARs 3663 and 64.