3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Nov 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024 is 3 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Nov 21       Nov 22       Nov 23
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         2.33     
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         3.00     
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.00         2.00     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         2.33     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024

              Nov 21  Nov 22  Nov 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 20 2024 1948 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024

              Nov 21        Nov 22        Nov 23
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 21-23 Nov.