3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Mar 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025 is 5 (.67NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Mar 25       Mar 26       Mar 27
00-03UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    3.67     
03-06UT       2.33         3.67         3.67     
06-09UT       3.00         3.33         3.33     
09-12UT       3.00         3.33         2.67     
12-15UT       3.67         2.67         2.33     
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.33     
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         2.67     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         3.33     

Rationale

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 25-26 Mar due to combined CME and CH effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025

              Mar 25  Mar 26  Mar 27
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025

              Mar 25        Mar 26        Mar 27
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for 25-27 Mar.