3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Apr 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2025 is 6 (.00NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 22       Apr 23       Apr 24
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         4.00     
03-06UT       6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)    3.33     
06-09UT       3.33         3.33         3.33     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         4.00     
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         3.00     
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         2.33     
21-00UT       4.00         3.67         2.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2025

              Apr 22  Apr 23  Apr 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 21 2025 1837 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2025

              Apr 22        Apr 23        Apr 24
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.