Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
20/1118Z from Region 3928 (S17E49). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 20/1208Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/1632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
20/1511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Dec, 23
Dec) and quiet levels on day two (22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 184 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Changelog/Featurelog 162Filaments and prominences 592Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 1Multiple flares having cumulative effects? 11Our Sun can possibly produce a Superflare roughly every 100 years? 54
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/21 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 100.9 -51.6 |
| Last 30 days | 116.1 -38.9 |