Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.0/1n flare at 02/0217 UTC from Region 3663 (N26E10, Dac/beta-delta) and an M2.7 flare at 02/2057 UTC from Region 3664 (S18E52, Dai/beta). Regions 3663 and 3664 produced the majority of the flaring activity. Both regions were in a growth phase. Region 3663 appeared to have a small delta within its larger central spot. Region 3654 (S07W90, Eai/beta) appeared to be in decay as it rotated around the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 03-05 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 03-05 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 03-05 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through approximately mid period with total field around 10 nT and solar wind speed at mostly nominal levels. At 02/1317 UTC, a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft indicating the arrival of a CME, possibly from 29 Apr. Total field increased to 19 nT while solar wind speed only increased to near 400 km/s. Solar wind speed further increased to around 450 km/s with total field remaining in the 17 to 20 nT range. Prolonged periods of southward Bz were observed reaching -19 nT.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under CME effects through 02 May, but slowly diminish through the day. A transition to positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 04 May and persisting through 05 May.

Geospace

24 h Summary

Quiet to unsettled levels were observed through 03/1200 UTC. At 02/1412 UTC, a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed (29 nT at HAD magnetometer). The geomagnetic field then reached G3 (Strong) storming levels from approximately 1500-2100 UTC.

Forecast

G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through early to midday on 03 May as CME effects persist. Quiet to active lives are expected on 04-05 May as HSS effects take over.