Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Dec 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest event was an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/1118 UTC from Region 3928 (S17E49, Dao/beta-gamma). The region also produced a C9.4 flare at 20/1011 UTC. Associated with that event was a Type II radio sweep (est. shock: 726 km/s) and a Tenflare (220 sfu). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Forecast

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 21-23 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near-background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 23 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

A mildly enhanced solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total field strength reached 9 nT and the Bz component ranged between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 440-540 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast

Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to background levels over 21 Dec, and persist at background levels over 22 Dec. Another mild enhancement is anticipated on 23 Dec due to a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail through 21 Dec, followed by mostly quiet conditions over 22 Dec. Unsettled conditions are likely to return on 23 Dec following the onset of an anticipated CH HSS.