Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 May 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4079 (N08, L=244) produced an impulsive M1.9 flare at 12/0001 UTC, the strongest of the period, from beyond the W limb. Minor growth was observed in Region 4086 (N07W64, Cro/beta) while the remaining regions underwent minor decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. Other activity included a filament located near N30E05 that began slowly lifting off at around 12/0900 UTC. The event was ongoing at the time of writing.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low over 12-14 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 12-14 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 14 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period in response to sustained negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength reached 11 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -8 nT, between ~11/1730-2130 UTC. Solar wind speeds ranged between ~380-475 km/s.

Forecast

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 12-14 May. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are likely to wane on 12 May, and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely over 13-14 May.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels this period in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast

Periods of active conditions are expected on 12 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are expected again on 13 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences subside and positive polarity CH HSS influences begin. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely to prevail on 14 May in response to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influences.